SMM: Industrial demand and ETF investment demand, etc., may support silver prices to fluctuate upward in the medium and long-term [SMM Silver Conference]

On May 16, at the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Ningbo Haoshun Precious Metals Co., Ltd. and Quanda New Materials (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., and strongly supported by sponsors including Fujian Zijin Precious Metals Materials Co., Ltd., Huizhou Yian Precious Metals Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Jiangshan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Jinquan Mining and Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd., Hunan Shengyin New Materials Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Weida Precious Metals Powder Materials Co., Ltd., Guangxi Zhongma Zhonglianjin Cross-border E-commerce Co., Ltd., Suzhou Xinghan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Yongxing Zhongsheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., IKOI S.p.A, Hunan Zhengming Environmental Protection Co., Ltd., Kunshan Hongfutai Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd., SMM silver analyst Wang Huilin discussed the topic of "Evolution of Silver Supply and Demand and Price Outlook."

1. Current Status of Silver Mine and Refined Silver Supply

In 2024, global silver-bearing mineral reserves totaled 640,000 mt in metal content.

Silver associated with polymetallic ores accounts for more than two-thirds of the world's silver mineral resources.

The self-sufficiency rate of domestic silver concentrates is approximately 50%, with imported silver concentrate processing trade being the main trade mode.

In 2024, the total imports of silver concentrates reached nearly 1.68 million mt, with silver mine resources in South America being the primary source of domestic silver concentrate imports.

Distribution of Domestic Refined Silver Production

In 2024, SMM 1# silver production exceeded 17,000 mt, with large-scale silver smelting capacity concentrated in Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, and other regions.

SMM 1# silver production is expected to continue to record positive growth in 2025.

The main sources of mineral silver supply are by-products associated with lead concentrates and copper concentrates.

►SMM Analysis

• Normalization of lead smelting losses, prioritization of by-product revenue

Lead smelters prioritize high silver-content raw materials for comprehensive recovery to increase profit output and offset losses from lead treatment charges (TC).

• Decline in silver recovery from imported copper ores

The continuous decline in imported copper ore TC in 2025 has affected the supply of copper smelting raw materials, with the main YoY decline in refined silver production in the first half of 2025 coming from precious and rare metal recovery in copper smelters.

Distribution of Recycled Silver Recovery Capacity

According to SMM estimates, with the construction of new silver recovery capacity, the estimated annual production of recycled silver in 2025 has exceeded 5,000 mt.

►SMM Analysis

• Traditional recycled silver recovery capacity: Distributed in Hunan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, with raw materials mainly consisting of metallurgical slag and other electronic and electrical materials.

• High-value precious and rare metal recovery capacity: Recovery of catalysts and various silver-based new materials containing platinum, rhodium, palladium, etc., with comprehensive recovery of multiple precious and rare metals.

• Emerging recycled silver recovery capacity: Able to rely on the rapid development of the PV industry chain, with a focus on solar cells, silver paste, wiping cloths, etc.

The increase in recycled silver from the PV industry component recycling market brings long-term supply pressure.

It analyzed this from the perspectives of the expected market size and growth rate of PV silver recycling from 2022-2050, as well as the estimated proportion of waste component sources.

2. Industrial Demand and Future Trends of Silver

The two end-use sectors with the most significant growth in silver end-use consumption are PV and NEVs.

The analysis incorporates data on PV installed capacity and projections from 2010-2030, solar cell production and projections from 2020-2030, the expected share of different solar cell technologies from 2024-2030, and NEV sales data from 2015-2025E.

►SMM Analysis

Despite the current technological trends of silver reduction and substitution, the silver paste consumption per GW for mainstream Topcon solar cells remains at 11-13 mt/GW. Therefore, it is estimated that silver consumption from domestic solar cell production will exceed 6,000 mt in 2025.

Silver's industrial demand has a wide range of end-use applications, with consumption demand outside of PV and NEVs remaining relatively stable.

The industrial demand for silver is gradually increasing, with global industrial demand accounting for approximately 62% of total demand in 2025.

Among the global silver consumption demand, China is the major silver consumer. In 2025, domestic silver consumption demand is expected to reach approximately 19,000 mt, accounting for over 40% of global consumption demand.

3. Current Development Status of Silver Nitrate, Silver Powder, and Silver Paste in China

3.1 Silver Nitrate Market - Changes in Domestic Silver Nitrate Capacity and Expectations for New Projects

►SMM Analysis

Ø The rigid demand for silver nitrate driven by PV installations and other new energy sectors is the primary factor driving the expansion of silver nitrate capacity.

Ø With qualifications prioritized, after the concentrated release of capacity, the commissioning progress of newly approved projects has slowed down.

Following the rapid expansion of silver nitrate capacity, industry competition has intensified, and operating rates have declined.

►SMM Analysis

Ø The growth in silver nitrate production is correlated with the expansion of downstream silver powder and silver paste. However, the growth in silver nitrate production has not kept pace with the progress of capacity investment, leading to a decline in the industry's overall operating rate.

3.2 Silver Powder Market - Domestic Demand for Silver Powder

In 2022, silver powder localisation occurred, and the demand for imported silver powder weakened.

►SMM Analysis

Ø The substitution process of domestically produced silver powder has accelerated. Imported silver powder still holds certain advantages in technical parameters, with Japan's DOWA being the world's largest supplier of silver powder for PV silver paste.

Ø The import of domestic high-end silver powder products still primarily comes from Japan, the US, and South Korea.

Domestic silver powder capacity is mainly distributed in regions such as Hunan, Jiangsu, and Hubei.

In 2025, there are still expectations for the expansion of domestic silver powder capacity, with an increase close to 20%, primarily driven by new projects in Hunan and Hubei.

Monthly Supply-Demand Balance of Silver Paste Estimated Based on Solar Cell Production

• Produce based on sales, with short inventory cycles and high long-term storage costs.

•The formulation of silver paste needs to be customized according to user requirements, generally containing 90-92% silver, with the remaining portion being organic carriers, glass oxides, and a small amount of other additives.

4. Silver Supply-Demand Balance and Price Outlook

Supply-Demand Balance Table for Silver Ingots (Domestic)

China has always been a silver exporter. In 2024, the net exports of unwrought silver with a purity of ≥99.99% in China were 3,982 mt.

Supply and Demand in the Silver Spot Market - SMMTD Premiums and Discounts Data Points

Medium and long-term silver prices fluctuate upward, with bullish factors > bearish factors

》Click to view the special report on the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference